No one expected Eden Hazard’s time at Real Madrid to go as poorly as it has. Rather than seamlessly filling Cristiano Ronaldo’s goalscoring boots and leading the team to yet another Champions League title, his dream move has deteriorated into an injury-filled nightmare. He has lost his starting spot, seen Madrid get eliminated by Chelsea (en route to his former team lifting the Big Ears trophy), and now been told not so subtly to find a new team. Madrid are once again doing their transfer business in the press and are keen to link him with a Premier League return, with Chelsea and nouveau-riche Newcastle the main options being bandied about.
Hazard is a Chelsea legend after delivering scintillating
performances and loads of trophies during his time at Stamford Bridge. But
could he recapture his old form by coming home? In order for him to return, the
move would need to make sense for Chelsea, Madrid, and Hazard himself. Let’s
break down the pros and cons for each party.
Would this move make sense for Real
Madrid?
Absolutely. Madrid have an absolute fortune invested in Hazard and are getting
almost nothing for it. Getting him off their books — even at a big loss — would
be helpful. While their finances haven’t taken as big of a hit as Barcelona’s
during the pandemic, they are still hurting and simply cannot afford to carry
Hazard, especially if they want to add high-earners like Kylian Mbappé, Paul
Pogba, and Antonio Rüdiger in the summer.
But the big question is how much relief Madrid could get.
There is really no way they are going to get anyone to pay a transfer fee and
take on Hazard’s salary of almost £400,000 per week. There are almost no teams
in the world that can afford that in the first place, and certainly no teams
that would be willing to pay that for much for his current level of
performance. However, as we have seen in the past with Gareth Bale in
particular, Madrid will do loan deals and move players at a loss for even small
levels of financial relief. One way or another, they will do their best to move
Hazard.
Would this move make sense for Chelsea?
Eden Hazard at his best is a brilliant player and
a joy to watch. He scores goals, creates goals, and rises to the biggest
occasions. He is impossible to stop and can go past even the best defenders (or
full teams like Arsenal).
He is Premier League-proven and has
performed at the highest European levels. He can play any position across the
front line, including striker, without missing a beat. He is equally effective
at breaking down deep defenses and playing on the counterattack. He could
improve the Chelsea attack by opening up spaces for others — he would be
another player who could play quick passes in tight spaces around the box,
punishing teams that focus on (his international teammate) Romelu Lukaku. He is
also an incredible outlet to progress the ball from deep, making the transition
from defense to offense lightning quick.
But we can’t ignore the big question — does the Eden Hazard
that we know and love still exist? Unfortunately, it seems like that player is
gone forever. Age and injuries have sapped Eden of his strength and
explosiveness, and he simply isn’t the same player he was five years ago. He
spends significant amounts of time in the treatment room, and even when he
plays he doesn’t produce. During his 2+ seasons in Madrid, he has appeared in
less than half their games and scored only five goals. He’s never been a player
that loved training or a disciplined lifestyle, so unlike someone like
Cristiano Ronaldo he was likely to deteriorate faster after age 30, and he’s
not proving that notion incorrect.
The simple answer, based on cost and performance, is that
bringing Eden Hazard back would make no sense for Chelsea. However, the
question gets far more interesting if we consider the situation more carefully.
We know that Madrid are desperate to move Hazard, so we would not have to pay
“full cost”. We could very likely get him on a 6-month loan (in January) or a
12-month loan (in the summer) and would probably only need to cover half his
wages (or less). Similar to Saúl, we could even include a buy-option at a
reasonable price (say £30 to £50 million) to sweeten the deal. Our financial
outlay would be limited if Hazard couldn’t recover his form, while the upside
could be very big.
Beyond the finances, we would also need
to get him healthy. Fortunately, Chelsea have one of the best medical teams in
the game, and we are familiar with Hazard’s needs. In addition, Thomas Tuchel
is very good at managing player workloads to maximize performance and
availability (see N’Golo Kanté and Thiago Silva). We could certainly expect
Hazard to be healthier at Chelsea than at Madrid.
Lastly, we would need to level set appropriate expectations.
Bringing him back with the idea that he would start at left wing and dominate,
would be a big mistake. I would be very excited to see him play as a No.10 or
second striker in a 3-5-2, especially when we are playing more offensively. He
still has incredible ball control and vision, and could create a ton of goals
for Lukaku, our midfielders (Mount and Loftus-Cheek particularly), and our
wingbacks. He could also play with any combination of our attacking players as
all of them have the skills and movement needed to play off of him. He would
add a unique surgical weapon for Tuchel to deploy, and if managed properly, he
could be a huge asset to the team.
Based on the expected costs, the role he could fill, and
Tuchel’s tactical skills, bringing Hazard back is a move with high potential
upside and very limited downside for Chelsea. So it would make a lot of sense
for Chelsea to pursue a move.
Photo by Clive Rose/Getty Images
Would this move make sense for Hazard?
This would probably be the best possible outcome for him. He would be playing
for a club and a fanbase who love him. He would be playing a defined role for
one of the best managers in the world, and would have the best chance of
recapturing his best form (as unlikely as that may be). He would get out of his
current nightmare without having to give up any of the financial benefits. He
would also have the chance to continue to win trophies, including the Champions
League.
What is the competition?
With Madrid heavily subsidizing the cost, there are a number of teams that
could be interested in Hazard. However, most of them would be a significant
step down in terms of potential to win trophies (mid-table Premier League
teams, Serie A, etc.). And very few teams would have the patience and financial
ability to use him in a smaller, more narrowly defined limited role to maximize
his chances of success.
Newcastle have been quite heavily linked based on their new
ownership, but a move to them makes far less sense for Hazard. He would have to
carry a bad team and would essentially be set up to fail. There are other elite
teams that could offer him a limited role similar to Chelsea (Juventus,
Manchester City), but it’s hard to see any of them allowing him as much time to
assimilate, or being more appealing to Hazard than returning home to Chelsea.
Verdict?
Eden Hazard returning to Chelsea has a very good chance of happening. I think
he would leap at the chance and I think the move makes sense for the club if
the cost is (relatively) low.
I expect a (heavily-subsidized) loan move to happen in
January. Once he’s back at home and feeling loved, I think he has a good chance
of quickly recapturing his form and making key contributions to a title push in
the spring.
No comments